러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[외교/안보] The Future of Nuclear Proliferation after the War in Ukraine Proliferation Papers
우크라이나 국외연구자료 연구보고서 IFRI 발간일 : 2024-04-01 등록일 : 2024-04-25 원문링크
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Four categories of factors have been identified that might trigger an escalation. Firstly, changes in the international security environment, including heightened competition among major powers, could increase pressure for proliferation in regions like Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Secondly, the declining ability of the United States to enforce non-proliferation regimes may lead allies to seek nuclear capabilities due to concerns over U.S. reliability. Thirdly, failures by nuclear powers to uphold disarmament commitments and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons could undermine non-proliferation norms. Lastly, the war in Ukraine highlights the potential use of nuclear threats in conflicts, reinforcing the perception of nuclear weapons as crucial for national security.
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