러시아ㆍ유라시아

Participants emphasized that the two sides can do little at this point to change the overall tenor of a relationship that has taken on an increasingly negative dynamic in recent years. Each side views the other as being in a state of long-term decline, which disincentivizes concessions. Moscow is taking a “wait and see” approach, especially on U.S.-China competition. Both sides think that time is on their side. Any attempted “reset” therefore is unlikely until these views change.

As U.S.-Russia relations will remain competitive and, at times, confrontational for the foreseeable future, the risk of Washington and Moscow stumbling into an unanticipated and unwanted crisis is real. Under the circumstances, the two sides should focus on mechanisms for dealing with specific challenges where both Russia and the United States play a role and where a danger that problems will worsen exists. These challenges are not necessarily the ones that receive the most attention, but those where Washington and Moscow lack clarity about the other’s interests and intentions.