중남미
연구정보
[환경] Long-Term Sustainable Energy Transition of Ecuador’s Residential Sector Using a National Survey, Geospatial Analysis with Machine Learning, and Agent-Based Modeling
에콰도르 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - Green Energy and Technology 발간일 : 2024-03-08 등록일 : 2024-03-14 원문링크
In 2020, Ecuador’s residential sector consumed 13 million Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE), representing 15.7% of the total energy consumption in urban and rural households in the country. Of this consumption, liquefied petroleum gas accounted for 51.8%, electricity 38.4%, firewood 9.7%, and natural gas 0.1%. The main uses in this sector are home heating (49%), home ventilation (29%), and water heating, cooking, lighting, and household appliances (22%). This research aims to study the long-term energy transition of Ecuador’s residential sector. The methodology applies the geoAI MUSE-RASA framework and is based on a national survey, geospatial analysis of large spatiotemporal datasets applying machine learning techniques, and agent-based modeling. The survey results and the spatial distribution of per capita GDP show that the population can be classified into five agents, characterized by investment objectives, search rules, decision strategies, and a budget for investing in household energy technologies. Additional results include national and agent-specific demand, supply, consumption, and emissions. The sustainable scenario shows that by 2050, the total energy demand in the residential sector will reach 103.2 PJ, distributed among home heating (45 PJ), water heating (19 PJ), space ventilation (0.2 PJ), cooking (12 PJ), lighting (5 PJ), and appliances (22 PJ). In the case of home heating, three technologies will play a significant role in the sector’s sustainable transition: electric boilers, biomass boilers, and heat pumps by 2050. The results of this research can be used for evaluating energy policy when considering the spatial distribution of the population and their socioeconomic and developmental characteristics.
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